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Because of the current imbalance of supply and demand in the commodities market, the cost of construction has been trending downward over the last year or so. Some of our projects take years to develop, and before this correction, the previous several years saw 3-4% increases annually. It’s hard to come back to your customer relationships and routinely share news of a bigger bill. The tables have now turned. The projects we bid a couple of years ago are costing less to finish than we anticipated. But how long can this continue?
I watch commodity prices every week, and over the last 60 days some have increased on the order of 30% or more. This will ultimately lead to higher building costs after supply balances with demand. I am not sure when that will change, but it will change.
I have mentioned to some of our customer relationships that I believe the next couple of quarters might be a good time to lock down pricing. Of course there is also a school of thought that there’s another shoe to drop with commercial real estate values. Who knows?
To make the best decision, it’s important to educate yourself. Among other newspapers, I try to read The Wall Street Journal daily. At the first of the year, it seemed like they published very few articles reporting positive news, but now the mix seems to be about 50/50. Lingling Wei and Peter Grant published an excellent article Monday regarding the commercial real estate sector, its relation to the economy as a whole and why the downward trend might stay a while.
As a practical example, I recently visited with a friend at the Sewanee: The University of the South. In the course of our conversation, she relayed her concern about the low pricing they received for a new project. The advice I gave her is the same I would I offer you. As a developer, if the contractor that submitted the price was qualified, proceed on but have a contingency to take care of those “misunderstandings” and change orders which will occur during these times. The low price you receive initially is just the beginning of the process. Be careful to keep a reserve in case our downward commodities trend starts moving back up.
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Merrill Stewart is Founder and President of the Stewart Perry Company, a commercial building contractor based in Birmingham, Ala. Contact him via email.

We recently priced a pro ject in Atlanta (a little less than $1 million job), which had several general contractor bidders and a ton of subcontractor quotes. In fact, there were a total of 20 subcontractors competing for $70,000 worth of HVAC work. Amazing. What’s even more amazing is that our cost was exactly the same as the general contractor with the lowest price and we came
in second. The difference? The general contractor with the low bid put $0 for his overhead and profit. At first blush an owner may think that is a great deal, but in keeping with the laws of economics someone will eventually lose.
Something similar happened when we priced a project we are currently constructing in Richmond, VA. After being awarded the job, our sprinkler subcontractor said his price included reusing the old pipe, a new one for me in the industry. Everyone is looking for ways to get “low.” We are currently buying steel bar joist at the cost of the raw product—bar and angles. So basically we are getting the design cost, engineering cost, fabrication cost and the freight for free, as are our customers.
The recession has compelled many to find innovative ways to cut costs. Interesting times for sure.
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